Assessing potential trade packages for Andrew Benintendi
With Mookie Betts already gone and Jackie Bradley Jr. likely to follow, the only remaining member from the 2018 World Series outfield is Andrew Benintendi.
Benintendi flew through the minor leagues out of necessity, as the seventh overall pick in 2015’s draft was in the majors after only 151 games in professional baseball. There’s always a risk involved when a prospect gets the call without any experience past Double-A. However, Benintendi didn’t miss a beat when he got his cup of coffee. In 34 big-league games in 2016, he slashed .295/.359/.476 with a 121 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR.
In the process, the former Arkansas Razorback showed Red Sox fans a glimpse of his potential. A relatively average defensive left-fielder with above-average bat-to-ball skills.
That said, it hasn’t precisely been smooth-sailing for the 26-year-old. Since Benintendi’s impressive month or so in 2016, he has slashed .272/.353/.433 with a 107 wRC+ and 8.0 fWAR in just shy of 2,000 plate appearances. While those numbers aren’t lackluster by any means, it doesn’t reflect his potential.
He has struggled mightily with the glove as well, accumulating -17 outs above average in left field since 2017.
All of this has culminated into a potential trade involving Andrew Benintendi finding a change of scenery. Though the team is in the midst of a rebuild, it’s not always bad to identify which players will see the other side early in that process.
So how can the team trade away a young, controllable outfielder and still find ways to move forward as an organization? Let’s take a look at some potential trade packages through the website baseballtradevalues.com.
The package.
Not only does Boston part ways with Andrew Benintendi, but they also bid adieu to another prospect. Like Benintendi, Michael Chavis got off to a roaring start to his major league career. His power was on full display on almost a nightly basis for a month, as eight of his first 27 big-league hits left the ballpark.
After 25 games, he was slashing .290/.389/.570 with a wRC+ of 148. Unfortunately, it’s been anything but impressive since––.230/.282/.390 with a wRC+ of 72 in his last 112 games. There have been a lot more swings and misses and much fewer walks as well. However, he has a heavy bat and could thrive in the high altitude of Colorado.
Then there’s Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi endeared himself to Red Sox fans early into his tenure with dominant outings against the Yankees and a workhorse-like performance in Game 3 of the 2018 World Series. He was so impressive that he inked a four-year, $68 million contract that following offseason.
However, much like his time before Boston, injuries kept Eovaldi from any sustained success. Even in an impressive 2020 campaign (3.72 ERA, 3.87 FIP), he missed time due to calf issues.
The right-hander can be useful when healthy, but not to the tune of $34 million over the next two years. The Red Sox would most likely have to eat $12-plus million to offload him, which shouldn’t deter them.
The return.
Getting Jon Gray in return would be massive for a team in need of pitching like Boston. Even if they have to take on a decent portion of Eovaldi’s contract, it would be well worth it.
To a point, Gray is similar to Benintendi in terms of potential being un-met. Once the third overall pick, Gray opened his career with a 3.46 FIP and a 17.2 strikeout-to-walk rate from 2015 to 2017. He also did a great job of limiting home runs, averaging 0.9 per nine innings. Since then, his FIP has been 4.06 or worse every season. Not to mention the decrease in strikeout rate and increase in home runs per nine innings.
With free agency looming, it’s a real question as to if he’d want to stay in the high altitude. And if Colorado is unwilling to trade Germán Márquez or Trevor Story, they need to get something for Jon Gray while they can. And with the acupuncture he’s receiving in his shoulder, there’s no certainty about whether or not that issue will linger.
As for Oberg, he’s been impressive for the Rockies his last three years there. He didn’t pitch at all in 2020, but the 30-year-old has a 3.23 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, and a strikeout rate of 23.7 percent since 2017. He’d slide right into a middle-relief role in the Red Sox bullpen––further solidifying positions for each arm.
Who says no?
Most likely the Rockies. Even though Gray hasn’t been as good his last three seasons as he was his first three and had the shoulder injury, he still could be an attractive commodity. The Red Sox sending three players (totaling roughly $23 million for 2021, $17 million if they assumed $6 million of Eovaldi’s deal each season) that don’t fit their timeline doesn’t give them any leverage.
Even though adding cash to the deal going to Colorado would close the trade value gap, there likely would be a better deal out there for Gray. So despite Benintendi being an upgrade in the outfield over Raimel Tapia or Ian Desmond, that probably won’t change this package's outcome.
The package.
Other than Benintendi, the Red Sox give up their 2020 backup catcher Kevin Plawecki. Many were shocked by his Spring Training performance, and he usurped veteran Jonathan Lucroy because of it. Many expected he’d decline once the season began, only the opposite happened.
In 89 plate appearances, the catcher slashed .341/.393/.463 with a wRC+ of 134. There was a definite element of luck involved, as he had an astounding .403 batting average on balls in play.
That said, he has always been more well-known for his defensive prowess (23.3 fielding runs above average between 2015 and 2019). Having a catcher with big-league experience behind the plate with a young pitching staff is always important––even with minimal offensive production.
The return.
The Red Sox would be getting back a component of the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies before the 2019 season. Thus far, Jorge Alfaro has had a very up-and-down career, never quite sustaining his brief success of 2017 with Philadelphia.
His walk rate is abysmal (4.5 percent for his career), and there have been many strikeouts to boot (34.4 percent). Since 2017, however, he’s hit better than Christian Vázquez.
Vázquez has played more and been more productive all-around, but Alfaro has been in the same ballpark with a bat in his hands. Bringing in the already 27-year-old to play behind the 30-year-old Vázquez could set the Red Sox up beautifully in the future. Vázquez’s contract will expire, if the option is picked up, after the 2022 season. Alfaro, on the other hand, is arbitration-eligible until 2024.
If all goes well, the team could be essentially grooming their next catcher at the big-league level. Therefore making somebody like Connor Wong expendable in the minors.
Along with Alfaro, the Marlins would be sending outfielder Harold Ramirez to Boston. Ramirez ended 2019 strong (106 wRC+ in September) but only played three games in 2020. Overall, he’s slashed .274/.311/.411 with a wRC+ of 92 in 122 major-league games.
Defensively, Ramirez is far from perfect, but it’s far from a detriment at this point.
The bat is the genuinely intriguing component, however. The 26-year-old has a 122 career wRC+ in the minor leagues (134 since the start of 2018). If Ramirez can figure it out at the MLB level, he can be an incredibly productive hitter.
He’s also under team control until 2026.
Who says no?
In this instance, probably the Red Sox. While Benintendi is likely not destined to stay in Boston, and Plawecki is a backup catcher, it’s hard to imagine the team not getting a pitcher in return. Miami is full of young arms, and the Red Sox would look rather foolish to miss out on a pitching prospect in both the Mookie Betts and the Andrew Benintendi deals.
The package.
In addition to Benintendi, the Red Sox would be giving up Jonathan Arauz, the middle infielder they selected in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. In 25 games, the switch-hitting infielder slashed .250/.325/.319 with a wRC+ of 78.
Not great, but impressive for a guy who only had 119 plate appearances above High-A ball before 2020.
While it’s nice to have organizational depth, the Red Sox aren’t entirely thirsting for middle infield prospects. Jeter Downs, Nick Yorke, and Cameron Cannon are all middle infielders ranking in the team’s top 20. The Red Sox can easily trade Arauz as part of this package and not create a significant hole.
The Red Sox would also be giving up Ryan Brasier and Marcus Walden. Brasier seemed to figure out his struggles after a down 2019 season, and Walden saw the exact opposite effect take place. Overall, both pitchers have shown they can be effective relievers.
The Cardinals managed to make the playoffs despite a bullpen ranking 17th in FIP and walking batters at the seventh-highest rate. Adding a couple of decent arms to their pool of options isn’t a bad thing at all.
The return.
Before reaching the major leagues, Tyler O’Neill was one of the best hitters in Triple-A (170 wRC+ in 64 games). However, following a brief run of success at the MLB level, he has struggled to regain his footing.
In his last 300 plate appearances, the outfielder is slashing .218/.286/.386 with a wRC+ of 80. Defensively, he’s racked up nine DRS since 2019 in left field, all of which coming in 344 defensive innings in 2020. Despite the low slugging percentage, his raw power is an attractive part of his skillset; his defense is another.
Even with the high strikeout numbers and low walk totals, being under control through 2025 and having another minor-league option makes him a solid returning outfielder.
As for Daniel Ponce de Leon, he’s been a relatively decent big-league pitcher in his career. His 2020 season was far from ideal, but between 2018 and 2019, he had a 3.31 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, and struck out roughly a quarter of the batters he faced. His fastball isn’t explosive by any means (93.3 mph average for his career), but he’s been able to find success with it.
He’s already 29 years old but is under team control until 2026. His ability to both start (4.17 ERA, 4.47 FIP) and come out of the bullpen (2.57 ERA, 4.40 FIP) is something the Red Sox have targeted before (Matt Andriese).
Not only do the Red Sox get to play the ‘control’ game with both returning pieces, but it also helps them shed 40-man roster spots. Right now, Boston has 43 players on their 40-man roster; this trade puts them at 41. In the process, moving Walden and Brasier open up an opportunity for Garrett Whitlock, who they Rule 5'd out of New York.
Who says no?
Truthfully, I could see this trade going through. Though if I had to pick a party saying no, it likely would be the Cardinals. Even though every other team in the NL Central has sold off pieces and let others go, the Cardinals aren’t precisely ‘going for it.’
While Benintendi is only a matter of months older than O’Neill, he comes with far less control. Arauz looks like he can be a decent defender up the middle, with the potential to be a decent hitter, but is he worth two contributing big-leaguers? As for Walden and Brasier, both are in their 30s. Just how valuable are they?
This move makes the Cardinals even better than the rest of the pack in the division. However, are they overly trying to make the playoffs? Time will tell, but so far, the Central has spent fewer than $4 million this offseason.