Beyond the box score: Bobby Dalbec has been excellent this season
Entering play on Friday, Bobby Dalbec is slashing .224/.278/.358 with a wRC+ of 78 (eighth on the Red Sox).
At face value, you’d be quick to call the rookie corner infielder a “flash in the pan,” immediately devaluing his 2020 campaign because he’s only hit one big fly this year. There’s a good possibility that, from looking at the box score, you’d be quick to compare his career path to recently-ousted infielder Michael Chavis. The game will eventually speed up on him, and his flaws will get exposed regularly.
All of those things could be true if you were box-score watching. Even though Dalbec’s strikeout rate has dropped significantly from last season to this (by 7.7 percent), it’s still an alarmingly high rate for the lack of home-run production. That said, you’d still be wrong to make that assessment.
Bobby Dalbec has not only been good this season, he’s been excellent offensively.
First things first, it’s essential to look at the quality of contact Dalbec is exhibiting. When you look at how he stacks up in terms of average exit velocity, he’s hitting the ball at an average speed of 89.7 mph. While that ranks tied for 126th out of 300 hitters with a minimum of 25 batted ball events, it’s tied with Eric Hosmer and is faster than J.T. Realmuto, Yermín Mercedes, Trey Mancini and Joey Gallo.
If you want to look at each of those five by wRC+, it is 125 (Hosmer), 154 (Realmuto), 229 (Mercedes), 120 (Mancini) and 126 (Gallo), respectively. Dalbec, for reference, is at 78.
This looks and very much is cherry-picked data, but it’s important in establishing the class of hitters in Dalbec’s range for exit velocity.
Next, we should take a look at his expected statistics. Entering Friday, Dalbec’s actual batting average is .224. However, his expected average is .293, which––although 53rd in baseball––is higher than J.D. Martinez (.291) and Xander Bogaerts (.289). Only Rafael Devers (.355) and Alex Verdugo (.348) rank higher than the rookie slugger on the Red Sox.
Dalbec’s expected slugging percentage is .572, higher than Corey Seager (.559), Giancarlo Stanton (.514) and Yordan Alvarez (.488). Among hitters with at least 25 balls in play, Dalbec is the 10th-unluckiest hitter in that regard, as his expected slugging percentage is 216 points higher than his actual.
Moreover, Bobby Dalbec has an expected weighted on-base average on contact of .574, 10th in the majors (min. 50 plate appearances). That number is closer to Bryce Harper (89 points behind) than teammate J.D. Martinez (96 ahead).
Note: Sheesh, Harper is only nine spots ahead of Dalbec, and the gap is almost as significant as Dalbec (10th) to Martinez (45th).
Also, worth noting, Dalbec’s barrel rate is 16.7 percent, which ranks in the 90th percentile––higher than the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Finally, let’s take a look at Dalbec’s slash-line against what it should be, based on his quality of contact.
Actual: .224/.278/.358 with a .279 wOBA
Expected: .293/.342/.574 with a .382 xwOBA
Difference: .069/.064/.216, .103
Dalbec has done everything you’d want him to do this season. He’s hit the ball hard, he’s struck out less frequently and he’s playing passable defense at first base––albeit negative four DRS. There’s zero cause for concern regarding Bobby Dalbec; he needs to run into some good luck for once this season.
He’ll be fine, and the team will reap major benefits if they play him even more than they are already.