Have Red Sox fans begun to overrate Xander Bogaerts?
Xander Bogaerts is one of the more underrated players in Major League Baseball, but have Red Sox fans begun to overrate him?
In short, the answer is yes.
The 28-year-old shortstop is slashing .300/.370/.506 and looks to be on his way to a fourth-consecutive 130 or better wRC+ season. On top of that, he’s on pace to finish off his fourth-straight season of a four-plus-win pace.
All in all, he’s been incredibly productive in that Red Sox lineup; so, how could he become overrated?
He religiously outperforms his expected stats.
Bogaerts’ ‘arrival’ as a budding star at shortstop began at the same time as the Statcast era (2015). Statcast has provided a lot of information to the average fan, stretching far beyond exit velocity and projected home run distance.
Statcast has also introduced the baseball world to the land of expected statistics for hitters.
Bogaerts has slashed .298/.362/.475 with a .357 wOBA in 4,044 plate appearances since 2015. However, his expected numbers indicate he’s benefitted from some good luck.
His expected batting average is just .263, his expected slugging percentage is .417, and his expected weighted on-base average is just .327.
While the latter of those three is skewed by two sub-.300 xwOBAs in 2015 and 2017, Bogaerts has only produced one season with an xwOBA above .360 (2018).
For reference, he’s never had a great season by that metric.
Based on his actual seasonal wOBA, he’s finished with a ‘great’ mark twice and is on his way to his third in 2021.
However, his expected numbers are relatively low by comparison, mainly due to him only being in the top 25 percent in hard-hit rate twice (2018 and 2019).
He’s also never been in the top 25 percent for barrel rate, with his best mark being the 74th percentile in 2018.
Don’t trust the eye test; Xander Bogaerts is not a good defensive shortstop.
There are certainly flaws to advanced defensive metrics, but there’s something to be said about Bogaerts’ low regards in every metric.
Among the 85 shortstops with at least 3,000 defensive innings in the defensive runs saved (DRS) era (since 2002), Bogaerts ranks 80th with -55 DRS. He also ranks 74th in range runs (-20.7) and has -37 outs above average (OAA).
At almost 29 years old, Bogaerts is in dire need of a position change–which might be a hard point to sell as he approaches a potential opt-out and, maybe, free agency at a later date.
For a team that said they wanted to prioritize defense in Spring Training, the Red Sox have allowed their regular left side of the infield to accumulate -13 DRS––Bogaerts contributing -5.
He’s not a top-five shortstop.
Many have labeled the soon-to-be 29-year-old as one of the five best shortstops in baseball right now.
In layman’s terms: he’s still top 10, but more in the seven- or eight-slot than three or four.
He has 12.4 rWAR since 2019, but his per-150 pace is 5.5 wins. In that category, some shortstops above him are Fernando Tatis Jr. (7.7), Carlos Correa (6.6), Marcus Semien (6.4), Trevor Story (5.8), Trea Turner (5.7), and Javier Baez (5.6).
That’s six shortstops who produce more wins above replacement than him in the past three seasons. Of those six, Bogaerts is last in DRS (-18) and OAA (-21).
Being top seven is still great, but it’s a far cry from being top three.
Xander Bogaerts is a great player that has had an incredibly decorated career for the Boston Red Sox.
There is no taking away his All-Star selections, Silver Slugger Awards, or World Series rings. However, he’s become an overrated player by Red Sox fans.
He’s a good hitter who benefits from a lot of good luck, a far-less than adequate defensive shortstop, and a near-29-year-old who will be commanding a lot of money in the not-so-distant future.
The Red Sox are building a powerhouse franchise that can compete for the World Series every season. If Xander Bogaerts is unwilling to switch positions, there could be a decent chance that Boston will look to move on from him.
As harsh as that may sound, it is a business after all. And as the saying goes: “Adapt or die.”