Optimizing the Red Sox lineup

5 min readJun 1, 2022

Following a two-night stretch in which the Boston Red Sox scored just one run on eight hits, the lineup red-hot a few days ago has gone cold again.

This begs the question: What can they do to optimize their starting nine?

Given the roster’s depth, or lack thereof, there’s no rhyme or reason to believe anyone seeing regular playing time should lose at-bats. However, something needs to change to optimize their production and get their best hitters to the plate more often.

Let’s start with the first question when writing out the lineup. Who should lead off?

Two words: Trevor Story.

Story has been Jekyll and Hyde in his first season with the Red Sox. Following an abysmal April that trickled into early May, the second baseman caught fire when Houston and Seattle came to Fenway for a combined seven games.

During those seven games, he slashed .360/.452/1.120 with a 316 wRC+ and six home runs.

Overall, he’s settled in at a respectable 111 wRC+. While his strikeout rate is north of 30%, he’s still leading the team –– minimum of 75 plate appearances –– with a 10.3% walk rate. Since the calendar flipped to May, he’s walked 12.5% of his plate appearances.

He’s also the team leader in base runs (BsR) with 1.3 and stolen bases with six.

Yes, Story leads the team in RBI. But he also can provide instant run production while also being a more likely candidate to reach base in front of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez.

The second spot in the lineup through the fourth spot should remain the same. Could you make the argument that Bogaerts and Martinez should switch places? Maybe. But those three are mainstays; any variation of those three hitting two through four is beneficial (as long as Devers hits second).

Perhaps Boston could drop the three of them down one spot against a lefty, but otherwise, it should remain intact.

This leaves the №5 spot in the lineup as the next question mark. Through May, it’s been primarily Alex Verdugo against right-handed pitchers. And while Verdugo has run into some tough batted ball luck (.345 xwOBA despite a .259 wOBA), he’s not produced at a high enough level to warrant getting him more at-bats.

Think of the Red Sox lining up in layers. Once the cleanup hitter is done batting, the №5 hitter should be another bat capable of leaving the ballpark but proficient in getting on base.

Franchy Cordero makes perfect sense in that role, given his production level.

Among Red Sox hitters with at least 75 plate appearances, Cordero is third in walk rate (9.2%) behind only Story and Martinez. He’s also a left-handed batter –– like Verdugo –– so he breaks up the string of right-handed bats in the lineup.

It comes down to production, which Cordero has nearly doubled Verdugo (114 wRC+ versus 63). Until further notice, Boston should be seeking out more at-bats for their first baseman.

Batting sixth should be Kiké Hernández.

Boston caught lightning in a bottle with the former Dodgers utility man in 2021. After demoting him in the order, then re-promoting him to the leadoff position, he posted a 134 wRC+ and struck out only 2.1% more than he walked.

This year, they did an abbreviated demotion of Hernández from April 22 until May 7. While he’s hovered around a 90 wRC+ since reclaiming the leadoff spot on May 8, that’s not good enough to justify getting the most plate appearances on the team.

Hernández is excellent at jumping the first pitch he sees, hitting .370 with a 1.000 OPS when he makes contact on 0–0. Unfortunately, he’s not doing enough outside of his ambushing tactic.

Demoting him in the lineup allows him to be in almost a pseudo-table-setter role. He gets to hit behind a power hitter in Cordero, which might free up some pitches to hit lower in the order. He should still hit higher up against lefties, but against righties, he should bat sixth.

The bottom third of the order should be Verdugo, the catcher and Jackie Bradley Jr. (or Christian Arroyo).

Christian Vázquez has been a revelation in 2022. After being one of the worst everyday players in baseball for a calendar year, he took off in mid-April. Since April 18, he’s slashing .333/.380/.475 with a 145 wRC+. Theoretically, he’s a guy Boston might want to get more plate appearances for the time being.

I like him hitting anywhere between sixth and ninth. There’s no pressure on him to drive the ball out of the ballpark, and the guys behind him are more likely to move him around with doubles than forcing him to be more of a speedster.

As for Verdugo, he could benefit from hitting in a lower leverage role. But slotting him seventh –– even lower against lefties –– does nothing but lengthen the lineup.

Too often, the bottom of the order comes up, and opposing pitchers can motor through it. Having Verdugo and Vázquez hitting back-to-back, considering neither are highly likely to strike out, makes navigating the bottom third more difficult.

As for the Bradley Jr. and Arroyo platoon, neither has produced much on a results basis, but they’re slowly coming around. While they’re not world-beaters out of the nine spot, they do enough to the point they at least need to be taken seriously. Both have sneaky power and a knack for hitting the ball hard.

The last question that needs answering is where does Bobby Dalbec factor?

It’s a difficult question to answer, but he’s been used as a platoon against left-handed pitching since the call-up of Cordero. He’s only had 36 plate appearances in 2022 against southpaws, but a career wRC+ of 132 against them in 254 plate appearances.

Against lefties, Dalbec should factor into the sixth or seventh spot in the lineup. At least for now. He’s also underperformed an xwOBA of .317, but that’s not an impressive number either.

Getting him more looks against lefties would greatly benefit the Red Sox, and hitting him higher in the order allows Cordero to enter the game in the middle of the lineup if a righty comes in.

Nonetheless, Boston can’t be content with its current lineup construction. While they’re top 10 in wRC+, they’re middle of the pack with runners in scoring position (108 wRC+, 16th in baseball).

Getting their best hitters more plate appearances should be priority №1 for a team designed to outslug opponents. Not doing so, and being content with guys who aren’t producing is only hurting them in the short term.

To summarize, the lineups should look something like this:

Optimizing the Red Sox lineup

Written by Jordan Leandre