What the Marcus Semien signing could mean for Toronto
On Tuesday, the Toronto Blue Jays kept up their busy offseason to this point; inked Marcus Semien to a one-year contract worth $18 million.
After a 2019 season that saw him as an AL MVP finalist, the 30-year-old shortstop came back down to earth in a shortened 2020 season. In 53 games, Semien slashed .223/.305/.374 with a .299 wOBA and a wRC+ of 92. He also saw a drastic decline defensively, as his defensive runs saved dropped from plus-12 in 2019 to negative-five in 2020.
An fWAR that was riding high at 7.6 in 2019 would’ve been just 3.7 had he played 162 games to the same tune he did for 53.
To this point, 2019 looks like a massive outlier. Before the .285/.369/.522 slash line and 138 wRC+ of two seasons ago, Semien’s best year offensively was certainly 2016. In 159 games, he slashed .238/.300/.435 with a wRC+ of 98.
Nevertheless, Toronto viewed him as worth $18 million for the 2021 season. So what does that mean for the state of their roster?
Looking at their team from top-to-bottom, they are very well-rounded offensively. However, there are still significant questions about their rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu is the closest to sure-thing they have, posting a 2.71 ERA since 2017. That being said, his peripherals are in the mid-threes, and his average fastball velocity was a career-worst 89.8 mph on average in 2020.
The next-closest arm to a sure-thing is probably Tanner Roark, but he is 34 years old, and his FIP has gotten worse each year since 2016. Then there’s Robbie Ray and Nate Pearson. Both starters have shown flashes of their true potential, but their walk numbers are staggering––especially in Ray's case since he’s been in the league since 2014.
Tyler Chatwood is a tweener. He’s been decent since he came up with the Angels in 2011. Last season, he made just five starts (18.2 innings) but had a FIP of 3.35. He seems best-served in the bullpen, but he can certainly provide innings if need be.
When push comes to shove, however, the Blue Jays need to add to their rotation. Perhaps their most intriguing trade piece now that Marcus Semien is under contract? Cavan Biggio.
There’s been a lot of swing-and-miss to the 25-year-old’s game through his first 159 games. However, despite the 26.5 percent strikeout rate, Biggio has walked 16.1 percent of the time and has put up 118 wRC+ to complement his .240/.368/.430 career slash-line.
The Blue Jays view Semien as an everyday starter, or else they wouldn’t have committed $18 million to him. While their depth at third base is relatively thin (Santiago Espinal), and Biggio played 61 innings there in 2020 (negative-three DRS), it feels as though Biggio becomes the odd-man-out.
Looking across the league, there are avenues the Blue Jays could address both the hot corner issue and their rotation. Teams like the Cubs or Reds are looking to offload salary; could the Blue Jays swing a deal, headlined by Biggio, to acquire Kris Bryant-Kyle Hendricks or Sonny Gray-Eugenio Suarez?
The Blue Jays seem to be jockeying for a title soon. The newest acquisitions of George Springer, Kirby Yates, and now Marcus Semien further showcase that. With Bichette and Semien appearing to be up-the-middle for at least 2021, that could mean the end to the Blue Jays tenure for Cavan Biggio.
There is a strong case to keep him around, and the lack of depth at third base is a significant part of that. However, one has to wonder if the need for starting pitcher and potential Bryant-Hendricks or Suarez-Gray packages is too enticing to pass up.