Why Garrett Richards makes perfect sense for Red Sox
Fresh off their signing of utility-man Enrique Hernández, there were reports that the Red Sox remained heavily engaged in talks with right-handed pitcher Garrett Richards.
In 2020, the former Angel and Padre averaged 95.1 mph on his fastball en route to a 4.03 ERA, a 4.28 FIP, and a strikeout rate of 21.6 percent across 51.1 innings.
The now 32-year-old was once full of potential when he broke into the league in 2011. However, nearly a decade later, the once ‘rising star’ is now considered something of a ‘what could’ve been.’ Injuries have derailed many seasons, most notably his ACL tear and his bout with Tommy John Surgery.
Consequently, the right-hander hasn’t thrown more than 76.1 innings since he threw north of 200 back in 2015. Though he made 14 appearances (10 starts) for the Padres in 2020, the jury is still out on whether he can remain healthy for a full 162.
Regardless, this move makes perfect sense for the Red Sox for a small handful of reasons.
For starters, he should come exceptionally cheap. Again, injuries have played a key role in Richards’ lack of production. That aside, he’s only averaged $5.44 million per season, in terms of value, since 2016. For comparison, the recently re-signed Martín Pérez has averaged $10.76 million over the past five seasons, only to get $5 million guaranteed in his one-year deal with an option this go-round.
Richards has the red flags with his durability. There’s no real doubt that he’s a productive player when healthy; he’s, unfortunately, never healthy. Which is why he should make roughly the same as Pérez, despite having better numbers when he’s pitched.
Second, excluding 2020, Richards has been proficient in keeping the ball out of the air. Between 2011 and 2019, he ranks tied for 33rd out of 256 qualifying starters in fly-ball rate (28.3 percent); 25th in line-drive rate (19.4 percent). Given the dimensions of Fenway Park, the fewer times the ball goes into the air against you, the better. While it can save a pitcher from some homers, it also creates some that would likely be flyouts otherwise.
Richards not only has excelled at keeping the ball out of the air for his career but has also done an admirable job limiting hard contact. Over that same stretch, the soon-to-be 33-year-old ranks 24th in hard-hit rate (27.2 percent).
So from a batted-ball profile, Richards’ results should transition well to Fenway Park.
Third, he follows the mold of many Red Sox acquisitions of the past couple of seasons. Whether those guys be Matt Hall, Austin Brice, or Colten Brewer, they all have one thing in common: their curveballs spin like crazy.
Richards fits that mold entirely. In 2020, Richards ranked in the 99th percentile in curve spin, ranking third out of 280 pitchers who threw enough curveballs to qualify. His 10.6 in of vertical movement against the average was behind only Alex Reyes and Trevor Bauer.
The horizontal movement is above average, too, despite being of significantly lower rank—his 1.6 inches of horizontal movement was good enough to tie with Craig Kimbrel and Nick Pivetta for 78th.
To top it all off, he also ranked in the 97th percentile for fastball spin.
Lastly, given the timeline the Red Sox appear to be operating under, signing a guy like Richards makes a lot of sense for the farm system.
Assuming the right-hander gets a deal of roughly two years, the results can go many ways. The first one is quite obvious: he pitches well, and the team is vying for a postseason spot. Second: he pitches well, but the team is struggling mightily. Instead of trading a pending free agent to a contender in need of a starter, having an extra year of team control makes him that much more valuable. As a result, the Red Sox get a better prospect haul for his services. Third: he struggles. However, he stays healthy and buys pitchers like Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck more time to fine-tune their craft in the minors. Finally: he gets hurt, but since the signing was so low in average annual value, it hardly hinders them financially.
There’s truly no downside to signing someone like Richards to a one- or two-year deal. While it isn’t the end of the world if Chaim Bloom isn’t able to pry him away from other teams, this would be the perfect acquisition for this ball club.